Do Autonomous Vehicles Outperform Latest-Generation Human-Driven Vehicles? A Comparison to Waymo's Auto Liability Insurance Claims at 25 Million Miles

Understanding the safety impact of Automated Driving Systems (ADS) is crucial for their widespread adoption, yet robust real-world evaluation remains a critical area of development. By leveraging insurance industry third-party auto liability claims, we analyze the Waymo ADS performance across 25.3 million fully autonomous miles (with no human in the driver seat) and demonstrate a consistent and scalable framework for ongoing ADS safety assessment. This study not only updates previous findings with expanded geographical coverage and increased mileage but also establishes a methodology for comparing ADS performance to evolving subsets of human-driven vehicles (HDV). We introduce two key innovations: a novel “latest-generation HDV” benchmark representing drivers of newer, technologically advanced vehicles (2018-2021), and a robust insurance dataset for ADS safety assessment. Results demonstrate that the Waymo ADS significantly outperformed both the overall driving population (88% reduction in property damage claims, 92% in bodily injury claims), and outperformed the more stringent latest-generation HDV benchmark (86% reduction in property damage claims and 90% in bodily injury claims). This substantial safety improvement 1 over our previous 3.8-million-mile study not only validates ADS safety at scale but also provides a new approach for ongoing ADS evaluation. Our findings provide crucial insights into the evolving safety landscape of ADS technology and have far-reaching implications for transportation safety policies, insurance risk assessments, and public acceptance of ADS technology. This methodology establishes a foundation for future research into the safety impact potential of ADS and offers a framework for assessment as these systems continue to scale and develop.