Zeroing in on Traffic Fatalities in the United States: Using a Safe System Attribution Schema to Determine Fatal Cases Eliminable by Automated Vehicle Fleet Conversion

Previous research from other countries and state-level analyses has assessed how fatalities
manifest through a Safe System perspective. Using codified fatality data from 2023 from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), this study characterised elements of the Safe System that featured in fatal cases and explored the extent to which automated vehicles could serve to greatly reduce the current traffic safety burden. The elements of impairment (43.0% of cases), speeding (28.0%), and restraint/helmet misuse/nonuse (53.2%) featured heavily in this fatal dataset, with 29,019 (77.1%) involving at least one of these three elements and 3,468 (9.2% of fatal cases) involving all three of these elements. Slightly more than 8% (3,086 total cases) of fatal cases involved only Safer People features, highlighting the interconnected nature of deviations from the Safe System in fatal cases. This analysis further estimated the potential for automated vehicles to reduce passenger vehicle-related traffic fatalities in the United States by anywhere from 47%-83% from current levels using an elements-based approach. While automated vehicles will not be a panacea for traffic fatalities as shared responsibility is required for a Safe System, designing them in accordance with Safe System principles offers the potential to reduce traffic fatalities in the United States.